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Toronto Condo Market 2011 - By the Numbers

August 26, 2011

Toronto Condo

Toronto Condo Market Still Breaking Records!

The following is a repost of an article from condo outlet's Roman Bodnarchuk. It's worth noting that the numbers quoted here have sources attributed to them. I believe they are reliable figures. I have edited somewhat to reduce the length of the article.

What follows is a comprehensive summary of the state of Toronto and GTA’s condominium market at the end of the second quarter of 2011. These 30 metrics are based on latest reports from Urbanation, Tridel Corporation, Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB), Bank of Montreal (BMO), Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), and RealNet Canada.

GTA’s Condo Market: the Latest Numbers:

  1. 44 new projects were launched in Q2 of 2011 including 9,182 units. That’s 4 more projects than first projected – Urbanation
  2. A record 9,455 new condominium units were sold in April to June this year  - 35 per cent more than the previous record set in Q2 of 2007 with 6,997 units sold – Urbanation
  3. A record 24,731 new condominium units were sold over the past 12 months, 9 per cent higher than 22,654 units set in Q4 of 2007 – Urbanation
  4. At the end of Q2 of 2011, only 16 per cent of the 78,142 active units (in 306 active condominium projects) were unsold. This is a record low  compared with Q1 of 2011, 2010 and 1986 which recorded 17% unsold units – Urbanation
  5. A record 7,815 units were registered in Q2 which is about the same number achieved over the past three quarters combined. This shows strength in the resale market – Urbanation
  6. About two thirds of all (new home?) sales in the month of June in the GTA were condominium apartments compared with the historical norm of about 40 per cent – RealNet Canada
  7. As a result of the increase in the new condo sales, sales of new homes overall were up 53 per cent in June of 2011 compared with June of 2010 – RealNet Canada
  8. In June there were 2,868 high-rise condominium sales in the GTA - 63 per cent were in the city of Toronto – Tridel Corporation
  9. The 905 region is becoming increasingly popular as 37 per cent of high-rise units sold in the GTA during June were in that area. The price of units in the downtown core is more expensive which is the main reason why some look to the north of the city – Tridel Corporation
  10. In the past five years the average price of a new condo unit in the city has gone from about $350,000 to the current $459,122 – Tridel Corporation and Urbanation
  11. Average home prices in Toronto are seven times the median family income up from 4.5 times three years ago. Prices Canada-wide is about five times the median income – Tridel Corporation and Bank of Montreal
  12. Average price of new condominium, currently at $459,122, represents an increase of 10 per cent from July 2010 ($418,675) – Urbanation
  13. In the past five years, the price of new condominiums in Toronto has steadily appreciated by 4% to 7%. This is a normal growth and does not indicate a potential bubble – Urbanation
  14. Due to increases in costs (taxes, levies, the HST etc.) average size of units has been getting smaller throughout the past five years and will continue the same trend in the near future – Tridel Corporation
  15. Resales of condominium apartment units are up 23% year-over-year for July. However, in the first seven months of 2011 sales are down 1.3 per cent compared to first seven months of 2010 – Toronto Real Estate Board
  16. Despite the increase in units sold, only 16 of every 1,000 apartment units (1.6 per cent rate) remained vacant (figures from April) which is down from 2.7 per cent in the previous year. – (CMHC)

Buyer Behaviour:

  1. About half of new condo purchasers are first-time home buyers, many of whom are single-family households – Tridel Corporation
  2. One third of all condo purchasers in the GTA are single females – Tridel Corporation
  3. Toronto condo market is divided in segments – half of the market are first time home buyers, 25 per cent are single buyers who have moved out of their homes, and the other 25 per cent of the market consists of people who already own a condo unit but look to move up in size or improve in location – Tridel Corporation
  4. Average age of GTA Condo purchasers is about 42 while for the first time home buyers it is about 33. This is based on the past 10,000 sales at Tridel – Tridel Corporation
  5. One Bedroom + Den units remain the most popular at 40-42 per cent of all units sold – Tridel Corporation
  6. While 1BR+Den units remain the most popular, 24 per cent of other units sold are One Bedroom, followed by 21 per cent Two Bedrooms, and 11 per cent Two Bedroom+Den (the rest are larger units like penthouses)- Tridel Corporation
  7. Downtown Toronto is the preferred location for first-time buyers and investors – Tridel Corporation
  8. 46% of Canadians are planning to buy a condo unit as a way to enter the housing market. They see condominium units as a compromise between price and location.
  9. First time home buyers are attracted to condos as these units 1- are more affordable than single-family homes, 2- come in a variety of sizes and pricing for most budgets, and 3- take longer to build giving buyers the chance to save for their first homes – Bank of Montreal

Predictions:

  1. Looking at supply and sale metrics, Toronto Real Estate market is strong and balanced. A decline in sales by 3 per cent may be on the horizon in the new year given the stricter mortgage rules (buyers will no longer be able to purchase a home with 35-40 year amortizations) – Tridel Corporation and Bank of Montreal
  2. By the end of 2011 we will have 25,000 new condominium sales (and about 17,000 resale units sold). This will top the 20,000 units sold in 2010 which at the time was second highest ever. – Urbanation
  3. The 25,000 figure is also impressive when compared with the 15,000 minium number of units that have been produced for the past 10+ years. The consistency also signals a balanced market. – Tridel Corporation
  4. Resale sales of condominium units, adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, is just under 90,000 annual sales for 2011 thus far- Toronto Real Estate Board
  5. Average rents of existing apartments in the GTA is at $1,045 for all types of accommodation compared with $1,044 from last year. This, along with the low vacancy rate in the city should ease the fears of a potential bubble – Royal Bank of Canada & Urbanation

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